Aquatic Conservation Unlimited Response to Mauriello


In Mr. Mauriello's response to esqkr@aim.com, dkurzesq@gmail.com, he states:

"... DRBC is actively working on a flood model to evaluate the reservoir operations and flow management plans to determine what operational changes could be considered to mitigate flood damages downstream of the upper basin reservoirs, while still addressing water supply concerns and ecological flow goals. ..."

I have seen emails forwarded by Delaware River Advocates that have said no plan, FFMP or otherwise, should be adopted until this Flood Analysis Model is completed. It is my understanding that this "wish" has been forwarded to governmental officials, and may have even made it to the Governor's inbox attached to a State Senator or Representative's letter.


Be careful of what you wish for.

This Flood Analysis Model will have OASIS feeds into it (remember the old adage: Garbage in, Garbage out?)

Please understand, the OASIS model is a very powerful tool, and used in the right way, could actually help us. But it is not used that way. NYC DEP will not allow any other rate of diversion other than 800 mgd to be used as a criterion for any modeling runs that are performed in the OASIS model. NYC DEP control the operating parameters, which are all geared towards maximizing the greatest amount of water to be held back for NYC DEP in their reservoirs, even if it means the result is overflowing reservoirs. NYC DEP controls the criteria in which to run the model. Please see the attachment that further reiterates this point. Anyone who is seroius about man-made flood control can not accept Dr. Kolesar's Model; however, the point in including this attachment for your review is his admission that NYC's modeling to date for releases is completely bogus.&nb sp; It is a shame that he continues to pander to NYC DEP's fictitiuos demand with his modeling output, for if anyone could come up with a proper man-made flood control release schedule, it would have been him.

What does all this mean to us? 800mgd is what NYC DEP is (currently) legally allowed to divert. What they actually divert is almost half of that, on a rolling daily average for their water year. And because they have changed - and this is the most important aspect of it all- the pattern of when and how much they take in diversions, all of the plans and models, (FFMP, Rev 1 and soon to be Flood Analysis Model) are not based in reality.

Fictitious modeling leads to fictitious analysis leads to vastly underestimating flooding scenarios. Holding out for a useless tool leaves us where we are now: In fear of flooding each and every time the Reservoirs are in SPILL mode.

This Flood Analysis Model will not change the way NYC operates its reservoirs. Rather, it will be used to describe the problem of flooding but at a vastly underestimated level.

Again, because this Flood Analysis Model will not look at reliable Reservoir Operations and will only look at a fictitious diversion of 800 mgd, the output of this model will be suspect.

And now for the really bad news:

If NYC DEP fixes the Delaware Aqueduct, our flooding problems will have just gotten worse. By at least 35 million gallons a day.

Think about it.

Do not assume that when they fix the leak(s), they will release the 35 Million Gallons a Day down the River. They have saved over 300 million gallons a day over the past 13 years, and have hoarded it. That is part of how we got here in this constant flood mode. Why would they all of a sudden do the right thing?

Elaine Reichart
Aquatic Conservation Unlimited